POWER GENERATION TECHNOLOGICAL DETERMINANTS FOR FUEL SCENARIO OUTLOOK

A S M E TURBO EXPO LAND, SEA & AIR

 STOCKHOLM, SWEDEN

JUNE 1998

Peter Luby

Miro R. Susta

IMTE AG

Switzerland

ABSTRACT 

Concentration of power market revolutionary changes within the relatively narrow time frame of the last decade will continue for at least another decade.

 Too many dynamic factors have been seen in the research & development of new power generation technology as well as commercial realization.

 Too many impulses have been also seen in the independent power market arena. 

New legislation framework, new financing tools, deregulation, privatization and liberalization trends have become typical with many emerging economy countries but also with countries having highly developed infrastructure supported by stabilized legislation & political system.

All these factors have favored natural gas (NG) as first-priority option wherever this was possible. Gas turbines (GT) based technologies  have dominated in the new capacity demand saturation. GT technologies will also dominate further on. 

However, this does not mean that NG will retain the first choice for ever. NG market saturation may appear approximately about 2010-2015.  

Huge reserves of coal together with appropriate coal-based technologies like IGCC (Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle) or PFBC (Pressurized Fluidized Bed Combustion) will cause subsequent decline from NG towards other fossil fuel commodities.

Reasons for such scenario are given in our analysis.

AUTHORS

Status 1998